By Karl Malakunas

Agence France-Presse

His name used to be poison in the Philippines but Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is now talking about becoming president after elections showed him to be one of the nation’s most popular politicians.

The dictator’s son also insists his family has nothing to apologize for in regards to his father and namesake’s 20-year rule of the country that ended in 1986 with a “people power” revolution and a humiliating escape into exile.

“My father doesn’t need me to vindicate him,” a relaxed Marcos told AFP last May 19 in his first major interview since the national elections on May 10 that saw him secure more than 13 million votes and a seat in the Senate.

“What will vindicate my father will be the academics and the historians who will look back on his time in the cold light of day and see his administration for what it was.”

To many, Ferdinand Marcos Sr.’s reign was dominated by widespread human rights abuses, the family stealing billions of dollars from state coffers and the wholesale slaughter of a fledgling democracy aimed at holding on to power.

But Marcos Jr. said his father, who died in 1989 in US exile and now lies embalmed in the family home in the northern Philippines, committed no major crimes and was a superior president to those who succeeded him.

“To compare between him and the presidents since, he was a much better president than they have been,” the 53-year-old said as he sipped on a fruit juice in an upscale Manila cafe.

He dismissed charges that his father cheated to win the 1986 elections, one of the key moments in modern Philippine history as it triggered the so-called “people power” revolution led by the democracy heroine Corazon Aquino.

Marcos was similarly black-and-white when asked if the family stole even just one dollar while in power.

“Good Lord no, of course not,” he said, then emphasized that hundreds of cases had been lodged against the Marcosos in an attempt to recover alleged ill-gotten wealth, but none had succeeded.

On human rights abuses, Marcos initially said that some minor incidents — such as a drunken soldier beating someone up — may have occurred while his father was in power.

“But it was not part and parcel of government. It was not national policy to commit human rights abuses,” he said.

Pushed further, however, on issues such as the detention of journalists, newspapers being closed and the imposition of martial law, Marcos said such measures were needed to contain “wars” against Muslim and communist rebels.

“So the war rules applied, I suppose, in that regard,” he said.

Further boosting his confidence that his family will fall on the right side of history were parallel victories in the national elections by his famously flamboyant mother, Imelda, and sister Imee.

With Imelda, 80, winning a seat in the nation’s lower house of parliament, and Imee the governorship of Ilocos Norte province that is their family stronghold, the clan is at its strongest politically since being overthrown.

“It’s a result that we all wanted. You can’t do better than that,” he said.

Marcos said the trio’s victories showed that ordinary Filipinos had never abandoned the family, and that its downfall was only because it fell victim to a plot by the United States and powerful local oligarchs.

“The EDSA (people power) revolution was American-inspired. It was a regime change… and although they’ll deny it and swear on everything that’s holy that they weren’t involved, it’s very clear that they were,” he said of the US government.

“In the family, we always knew that, but it’s very gratifying to see that other people have come around to that way of thinking.”

Marcos said he had decided to step up to the Senate — after serving for nine years as Ilocos Norte governor and three as a lower house member — purely to give ordinary Filipinos a voice on the national stage.

“I really felt that I could help, I really felt that I had learned very much and I could bring those lessons to a national stage,” he said.

Marcos insisted that entering the Senate was not part of a well-orchestrated plan to run for the presidency in the next elections in 2016.

“We don’t know what’s going to happen in the next six months so I think to plan for that is actually not even a practical thing to do, a wise thing to do. Because you have to watch and wait really,” he said.

Nevertheless, he said that he did want to emulate his father by becoming president.

“In the way that every foot soldier wants to be a general,” he said.

Culled from election results from all over the country, we have listed here some of the more prominent winners and losers in the just-concluded May 10 elections. Many are familiar and renowned names, others are controversial and infamous.

Winners

- Gloria Macapagal Arroyo made history by being the country’s first president to seek a lower position. She won by a landslide over two unknown rivals in the congressional race in the second district of Pampanga. She replaces her son Mikey, who returns to the House of Representatives as nominee of the party-list group Ang Galing Pinoy, which purports to represent tricycle drivers and security guards. Mrs. Arroyo’s youngest son, Diosdao “Dato” Jr., won a second term as congressman in Camarines Sur. The President’s brother-in-law, Negros Occidental Rep. Ignacio “Iggy” Arroyo Jr. (brother of First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo) was reelected in the fifth district of the province.

- The Marcoses scored a triple victory, one in the senatorial race and two in their home turf in Ilocos Norte. The late strongman’s only son, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. won a Senate seat, landing a strong 7th in the 12-man race. Former First Lady Imelda Marcos made a comeback as congresswoman (she was previously Leyte congresswoman), this time representing the second district of Ilocos Norte, succeeding her son Bongbong. Eldest daughter Imee beat incumbent Governor Michael Keon, a first cousin, in the gubernatorial contest.

- Manny Pacquiao finally won a congressional seat after two tries. This time, he beat Roy Chiongbian, a scion of a wealthy clan, for the lone congressional seat of Sarangani province.

- Reelectionist Batangas Governor Vilma Santos easily sailed to a second term, trashing the widow of former governor Arman Sanchez, who replaced her husband after his sudden death a few weeks before the election.

- Esmael “Toto” Mangudadatu, husband of one of the 57 people massacred in Maguindanao last November scored a big win in the province’s gubernatorial race trashing Datu Umbra Sinsuat, an ally of the Ampatuan clan, who allegedly perpetrated the massacre. Andal Ampatuan Sr., who is in jail for his alleged involvement in the incident, lost to Mangudadatu’s runningmate, Ismael Mastura.

- Three kin of deposed President Joseph Estrada won in separate races: his son, reelectionist senator Jinggoy Estrada, came in second to bosom friend and showbiz colleague, Bong Revilla, in the senatorial race; his mistress Guia Gomez was elected mayor of San Juan mayor, replacing her son by Estrada, JV Ejercito, who easily won as San Juan congressman.

- The Binays’ 24-year reign in Makati continues as Councilor Junjun Binay succeeds his father, vice presidential frontrunner Jejomar Binay, as city mayor, beating former Binay ally and long-time vice mayor Ernesto Mercado. Junjun’s elder sister, Abigail, retained her congressional seat in the second district.

- Luis “Chavit” Singson, who has lorded Ilocos Sur as governor for 26 years, is back at the helm of the province. His son Ronald was reelected congressman of the first district of the province. Eleven other members of the Singson clan won in various local races

- The father-and-daughter team of Davao City mayor Rodrigo Duterte and vice mayor Sara Duterte traded places and trounced their respective rivals. The young Duterte beat former Speaker Prospero Nograles no less, while the father trounced former mayor Benjamin de Guzman.

- Shalani Soledad, girlfriend of prospective President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino Jr., topped for the second time the race for councilor in Valenzuela City.

- Gina de Venecia succeeds her husband, former Speaker Jose de Venecia, as representative of the first district of Pangasinan.

- Alfredo Lim won a second term as mayor of Manila, beating former mayor Lito Atienza and ex-PNP officer Avelino Razon.

- Three-term vice mayor Herbert “Bistek” Bautista takes the helm of Quezon City hall, edging ex-congressman and DENR secretary Michael Defensor and former QC mayor Mel Mathay.

- Outgoing Quezon City Mayor Feliciano “Sonny” Belmonte regained his old House seat in the fourth district. He is tipped as the incoming administration’s bet for House Speaker in a possible face-off with incoming Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Belmonte’s daughter won as QC vice mayor.

- Commercial model-TV host Lucy Torres became an instant, albeit reluctant, congresswoman, representing the fourth district of Leyte. She was a last-minute replacement for her husband, actor Richard Gomez, who was disqualified from the race for lack of residency.

- Dramatic actor Christopher de Leon was elected provincial board member of Batangas. In 2007 he lost in the province’s vice gubernatorial race.

- Actress Lani Mercado, wife of Sen. Bong Revilla, is the incoming congresswoman of Bacoor, Cavtie.

Losers

- Multi-awarded actor Cesar Montano failed in his gubernatorial try in Bohol. In 2007 he lost in the senatorial race.

- Priest-turned-governor Eduardo Panlilio lost in his reelection bid as Pampanga governor to Lubao town mayor Lilia Pineda, an ally of President Arroyo and wife of alleged “jueteng” lord Bong Pineda.

- After two terms as Isabela governor, Grace Padaca was finally vanquished by Rep. Faustino Dy III, a member of the Dy political dynasty that ruled the province for 30 years.

- Former executive secretary Eduardo Ermita lost in the race for congressional seat of the first district of Batangas. His son Edwin was likewise trounced in the race for vice governor of Batangas.

- Former justice secretary and presidential legal counsel Raul Gonzalez failed in his candidacy for mayor of Iloilo City. His son, Raul Jr., also lost in his reelection bid for congressman of Iloilo.

- Agnes Devanadera, Gonzalez’s successor at the Department of Justice, also lost in the congressional race in the first district of Quezon.

- Disgraced ex-agriculture undersecretary Jocelyn “Jocjoc” Bolante, alleged mastermind of the P728-million fertilizer scam, was defeated in his quest for the gubernatorial post of Capiz.

- Former APF chief Hermogenes Esperon lost his bid for a House seat in Pangasinan. He was linked to the “Hello Garci” election scandal in 2004.

- Losing VP candidate Bayani Fernando and his wife, outgoing Marikina City mayor Marides Fernando, lost their almost 20-year control over Marikina City after their political allies were trounced in the local races for mayor and congressman.

- Vivian Tan, daughter of billionaire Lucio Tan, lost to Rep. Vincent “Bingbong” Crisologo in the congressional race for Quezon City’s first district.

- Brig. Gen. Danilo Lim and Col. Ariel Querubin, who are detained for involvement in a coup plot against President Arroyo, failed in their attempt to replicate Navy Lt. Antonio Trillanes’ successful senatorial bid in 2007.

- Comebacking Joey Marquez was unsuccessful in his bid to reclaim the mayoralty of Paranaque City. His ex-wife Alma Moreno won another term as councilor of the city.

- Former Environment Secretary Michael Defensor and his father, QC Rep. Mat Defensor, were clobbered in the contests for mayor and congressman in Quezon City. Both were former LP members who chose to side with the Arroyo administration.

- Actress Aiko Melendez’s bid to jump from Quezon City councilor to vice mayor was foiled by Joy Belmonte, daughter of QC Mayor Sonny Belmonte.

Monday’s election was supposed to have ushered Filipino voters into the modern age of computerized voting, but the results show the country will remain stuck with feudal-style politics as dynasties secured elective positions at the provincial, congressional and local levels.

In at least 34 of the country’s 80 provinces, political families won tandem posts—one family member winning as governor and another as representative—in a new configuration that will give them a lock on power for years to come.

In around 20 of the country’s cities, the winning candidates for mayor had relatives also winning as representative, governor or both. READ FULL STORY.

By Karl Malakunas

Agence France-Presse

Tarlac, Philippines – Sitting inside a museum displaying the bloodied clothes his democracy hero father was wearing when assassinated, Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III admits that for a long time he did not want to be president.

Even after winning elections in the Philippines by a landslide as Filipinos put their faith again in his family’s revered name, the 50-year-old bachelor appears not to be entirely comfortable that the nation’s burdens rest with him.

“I look at it as an obligation and as a job,” Aquino told Agence France-Presse in an exclusive interview at the Aquino family museum in their hometown of Tarlac on May 11, a day after the elections. “I cannot look at it as a situation where I can promote myself or put myself on a pedestal.”

Aquino is still to be officially declared the winner of the elections, with the tally not 100 percent completed, but he has an unassailable lead and his team is preparing to take the country’s reins on July 1.

When asked about his emotions the moment he realized he would become president, Aquino spoke not of excitement but personal sacrifice.

“I am still trying to adjust to the fact that there will be a drastic change in lifestyle,” he said, elaborating on the inevitable end to dinners in restaurants and anonymous strolls in shopping malls.

“Now I realize what my mum was saying when she wanted to try and go to a grocery store.”

Aquino often echoes his mother, Corazon “Cory” Aquino, and sees their destinies as the same.

In the deeply Catholic Philippines, Cory Aquino is regarded with near saint-like status for leading the “People Power” revolution that ended Ferdinand Marcos’s dictatorship in 1986.

But she was thrust into the role of revolutionary only after her husband, Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino, was shot dead at Manila airport in 1983 when he returned from US exile to lead the democracy movement against Marcos.

Cory Aquino was famously reluctant to lead the Philippines because it would mean having to take chief responsibility in healing a nation afflicted with so many dictatorship-borne social and economic woes.

But she became increasingly comfortable with her fate, and her six-year term is now looked back upon fondly by many Filipinos weary of corruption and poverty as a time when they had an incorruptible leader.

Her son said that, even though he had been congressman and senator for more than a decade, he had little desire to become president until last year when his mother died.

“I would be inheriting the problems of an administration that for nine and a half years has really wreaked havoc on our country,” Aquino said, explaining his reluctance.

He compared Arroyo’s corruption-tainted reign with Marcos’s dictatorship, saying they both wrecked fundamental democratic institutions and badly damaged the economy.

But Aquino said that, like his mother, he felt obliged to assume the burden after listening to the clamor of millions of Filipinos.

“At the end of the day (I thought) I would not be able to live with myself… if, knowing that I could have done something, I chose not to and the situation became worse,” he said.

In a similar fashion to his mother, Aquino intends to try and lead the country back from corruption-laden despair by example.

“I did make a public vow, I will never steal,” Aquino said, adding he intended to follow in his mother’s footsteps and not live in the Malacanang presidential palace.

“I want to reside if possible in my family’s residence,” he said. “I want to be able to end the day having as much a normal life as possible, to keep my feet firmly planted on the ground.”

Aquino wants to emulate another of his mother’s symbolic acts and not use the powers of office to beat Manila’s notorious traffic congestion.

“If there is traffic, we are part and parcel of it because at the end of the day the buck has to stop with me,” he said.

Ultimately though, Aquino’s mother moved into a house close to the presidential palace and her security personnel forced her to travel quickly through the traffic.

And while she is much-loved for being a role model, she was not a panacea for the Philippines’ entrenched economic and political problems.

Aquino similarly acknowledged he would not be able to fix the country during his six years in power, which cannot be any longer due to constitutional time limits introduced by his mother to prevent another Marcos-style dictatorship.

“We cannot transform our society in six years. But we are hoping to be able to provide that impetus and momentum to carry over into the next administration,” he said.

By Sheila Coronel, for CNN

(CNN) — The irony is often lost on Filipinos. How can the country that gave the world not one, but two, peaceful “people power” uprisings that ousted corrupt regimes have such violent elections?

On Monday, May 11, more than 50 million Filipinos will have the chance to elect a new president, a new Congress and a roster of local officials. So far the campaign has exacted a deadly toll: Including the Maguindanao massacre that killed 57 people in November, some 100 people have been reported killed in election-related violence, according to news and police reports.

This past week has been especially bloody. Last Monday, armed men fired at two trucks carrying 200 campaigners of a mayoral candidate in Zamboanga del Sur in the southern part of the country. One man was killed, and 32 others injured. On Tuesday, a lone gunman approached a candidate for councilor and shot him several times at close range, as the candidate was shaking hands with voters in a gymnasium in the central Philippine city of Cebu. He died a few hours later.

These incidents merited only a few paragraphs in Manila’s free-wheeling newspapers. Violence is part of the fabric of Philippine elections, and a murder or two seldom gets headline treatment.

Most of the violence is rooted in local political rivalries. Contests for public office at the town and provincial levels are fought so fiercely because the spoils of public office are so rich. Those seeking national office can bank on popularity, celebrity and media exposure in order to win. At the local levels, the calculus is far cruder.

Last November, the private army of a powerful local clan in Maguindanao province attacked a convoy of vehicles on a provincial highway, killing 57 people, 30 of them journalists. The massacre was intended to prevent the clan’s rival, Esmael Mangudadatu, from filing his candidacy. It was so cold-blooded and so gruesome that it shocked even those who had become inured to the violence of politics and daily life in the Philippines.

The Ampatuan family, which has been accused of masterminding the massacre, has dominated local elective positions in Maguindanao for years and become rich in the process. In recent months, investigative journalists have had a field day documenting the family’s 28 mansions, their fleet of luxury vehicles and private arsenal of high-powered firearms.

“The Ampatuans do not have plantations. They do not own factories,” said Albert Alejo, a Jesuit anthropologist, at a forum of religious leaders in Mindanao. “Bullets are not harvested from crops. Where did they get these from?”

Over the years, the government of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has showered billions of pesos to fund development in Maguindanao, one of the country’s poorest provinces. In exchange, the Ampatuans have delivered votes for the president and her party. But the province has little to show for that money: It has only 18 government doctors for over a million people and one of the lowest literacy rates in the country.

Like many political families elsewhere in the Philippines, the clan has preserved its dominance through a combination of patronage, intimidation and links to the presidential palace. Officials say that the Ampatuans kept a 2,000-strong private army, which included the over 100 men who are now facing murder charges for last year’s massacre.

Six Ampatuans are in prison for their alleged complicity in that massacre. Despite this, at least 23 family members are reported to be running for local office in Monday’s elections. The family patriarch Andal Sr., currently jailed for multiple murder, is seeking the vice-governorship of the province, running against his own daughter.

The Ampatuans are an extreme example – most political families in the country do not wield such hegemonic or terrifying power. But they do show how the dynastic nature of Philippine politics has reached such absurd heights – or depths. The leading presidential candidate, Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, belongs to a family that has held public office for four generations. His mother, the late Corazon Aquino, was the country’s first female president. And those leading in the senatorial races — including Ferdinand Marcos. Jr., son of the former Philippine dictator — are part of the country’s entrenched political clans.

The dominance of families demonstrates the dysfunctions of Philippine democracy. Yet, lively debate on democracy and a high level of engagement in electoral politics exist in many places, especially the big cities and mass media. Voter turnout has traditionally been at 80 to 85 percent, higher than in more mature democracies.

Still, guns rule in places like the far-flung villages of Maguindanao. That sad reality will continue as long as families like the Ampatuans are not held to account. With the public outrage at the massacre still fresh, this election is a good time to start.

Editor’s note: Sheila Coronel is the director of the Toni Stabile Center for Investigative Journalism at Columbia University. She is a co-founder of the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, Committee to Protect Journalists board member and author and editor of more than a dozen books. She is a 2003 recipient of the Ramon Magsaysay Award, Asia’s equivalent of the Nobel Prize.

By Leandro Milan

Before the late strongman Ferdinand Marcos imposed martial law in September 1972, there were only two dominant political parties that took turns at the helm of the state from the time the country gained independence, namely, the Nacionalista Party and the Liberal Party. Occasionally, a third force or independent candidate would challenge the stranglehold of the two giants but not one had succeeded in disturbing the two-party system in place.

Founded in 1907, Partido Nacionalista or Nacionalista Party (NP) is the oldest political party in the country. The Partido Liberal or Liberal Party (LP) was formed in 1946 by a breakaway group from the NP led by then Senate President Manuel Roxas. Nacionalista stalwarts who became presidents of the country were Manuel Quezon, Jose Laurel, Sergio Osmeña, Ramon Magsaysay, Carlos Garcia and Ferdinand Marcos. Philippine presidents from the LP camp included Roxas, Elpidio Quirino and Diosdado Macapagal. Marcos was LP president from 1961 to 1964; he joined NP and became its standard bearer in the 1965 presidential election when then President Macapagal, father of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, decided to run for a second term. Other notable LP leaders were former senators Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. and Gerardo Roxas, whose respective sons – incumbent senators Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III and Manuel “Mar” Araneta II – are now the party’s top bets in the May 10 election.

In the post-Marcos era, the multi-party system was introduced ostensibly to open up the electoral process to more groups and give the electorate a wider menu of choices. New political parties sprouted, and the LP and NP became inconsequential. In 1992, Fidel Ramos of the then newly-formed Lakas-NUCD party won over Miriam Defensor-Santiago, who ran under the fledgling People’s Reform Party. Another newcomer, Nationalist People’s Coalition, fielded businessman Eduardo Cojuangco, who came in third. In 1998, Joseph Estrada was swept into power through the combined effort of two small parties — his own Partido ng Masang Pilipino and his running mate Edgardo Angara’s Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP). In 2004, President Arroyo ran under the Lakas-NUCD banner, defeating Fernando Poe Jr., the standard bearer of the umbrella group Koalisyon ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino.

The comeback kids

During the past few years, however, there has been a gradual tectonic shift in the political landscape. Through the rebuilding efforts of a new generation of leaders, the dominant parties of pre-martial law era have posted significant strides in regaining their old glory. Senator Mar Roxas has taken over from the party’s sole remaining Old Guard, the venerable Jovito Salonga. On the Nacionalista side, former Vice President Salvador Laurel passed the baton to Senator Manuel Villar, who used his vast personal wealth and political savvy to turn the NP into what is now acknowledged as the most organized political machinery in the country. The LP and NP are back in their old form and if the results of the most recent nationwide surveys of the country’s leading pollsters (Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia) are an indication, the 2010 presidential race has become a three-man race among Aquino, Villar and Estrada.

True, the political landscape is still littered with post-Marcos parties and alliances – Lakas-Kampi, NPC, PMP, LDP, PDP-Laban, KBL, Aksyon Demokratiko, Ang Kapatiran, PRP, UNO. The two pro-administration parties – Lakas and Kampi – got even bigger and stronger (at least on paper) when they coalesced a few months ago. But the impending end of President Arroyo’s term and her negative popularity ratings have struck fear and anxiety among party members. The ruling party is fast disintegrating and could fill up only five slots for the 12-man senatorial slate.

Lakas-Kampi disintegrates

Massive defections have rocked the ruling party in recent weeks and the biggest beneficiaries have been the LP and NP. The most notable Lakas defectors to the Liberal party are Quezon City Mayor Feliciano Belmonte, who used to senior vice president of Lakas; Misamis Occidental Governor Loreto Ocampos, president of the League of Provinces of the Philippines and a member of the ruling party’s national executive committee; ex-senator Ralph Recto, who only a year ago was in the Arroyo Cabinet; and Akbay Gov. Joey Salceda, an economic adviser of President Arroyo. Recto was joined by his wife, Batangas Governor Vilma Santos, who was heavily wooed by the administration to be the running mate of Teodoro. The more prominent NP recruits from Lakas-NUCD include former Ilocos Sur Gov. Chavit Singson, Camarines Gov. L-Ray Villafuerte, Bukidnon Gov. Jose Zubiri, Surigao del Norte Gov. Robert Ace Barbers and Cebu Congressmen Pablo Garcia and Eduardo Gullas. Many more congressmen, governors, mayors and councilors have formed a bee line to the camps of Aquino and Villar, the two leading presidential hopefuls.

The Nationalist People’s Coalition, the vehicle of Danding Cojuangco for his losing presidential bid in 1992, is also showing signs of collapse. Its brightest hope in 2010, Senator Francis Escudero, abruptly quit NPC last October, leaving the party in disarray and without a presidential candidate. Escudero has since abandoned his presidential ambitions in 2010. The presumed NPC bet for vice president, Senator Loren Legarda, was forced to eat her words and swallow her pride and partnered with erstwhile nemesis Villar. Earlier, of course, there was the defection of no less than Danding’s favorite nephew, Gibo Teodoro, to Lakas-Kampi. With Danding’s advancing age and reported failing health, the NPC faces a bleak future.

Estrada’s PMP has never been a strong political party. Even during Estrada’s abbreviated presidency, PMP did not gain a strong nationwide following. The party suffers from lack of credibility, for while it espouses a pro-poor agenda, its leader is living it up in the company of unsavory characters – from drinking buddies and women to gamblers and vested interests.

Personality-oriented

Like NPC and PMP, the other parties are nominal groups whose existence is co-terminus with the political future of their patrons because they are very much identified with personalities rather than an ideology. The names and faces of their patrons are indelibly etched on the parties: Danding on NPC, Estrada on PMP, Angara on LDP, Marcos on KBL, Santiago on PRP, Villanueva on Bangon Pilipinas. Only the Nacionalista and Liberal parties have endured the test of time. But just the same, all the different parties remain mainly personality-oriented; their platforms are all loaded with similar motherhood statements. This explains why party loyalty is a cheap commodity in the country. Politicians seamlessly and shamelessly switch parties largely on the basis of self interest.

In a recent column in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, UP Professor Randy David offers an insightful and informed view of our political parties: “As it is, none of the leading presidential candidates can claim to stake their candidacies on the drawing power and record of their respective political parties. Their parties are nothing more than brand names that carry little weight, with no distinct political philosophy or ideology. This accounts for the ease with which politicians of varying, and often conflicting, persuasions and backgrounds are sworn into the same party. Nothing coherent binds them together. In truth, these so-called parties are nothing but coalitions of convenience, provisional alliances forged by practical considerations rather than by enduring principles.”

IN PHOTO: LP standard bearer Sen. Benigno Aquino III and running mate Sen. Manuel Roxas II flash the Laban sign after filing their certificates of candidacy.

Liberal Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has opened up a nine-point lead over his nearest rival for the presidency, fellow legislator and Nacionalista Party bet Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr., based on the results of the latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations Pre-Election Survey.

Aquino picked up a point to score 37% and further benefited from a six-point loss for Villar, now at 28%, in the March 19-22 poll conducted just before campaigning for local posts began last March 26. The gap between the two frontrunners was just two points, within the error margins used, a month earlier.

Former President Joseph M. “Erap” Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, meanwhile, gained four points to 19%, narrowing his gap with Villar to nine points from 19 previously.

Administration candidate Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD remained in single digit territory with his score staying at 6%.  FULL STORY

By Leandro Milan

The biggest, most star-studded and spectacular circus is coming to town!

Consider some of the dramatis personae in the next House of Representatives: Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, Imelda Marcos, Manny Pacquiao and Vilma Santos. It surely promises to be a controversy-laden and an action-filled chamber, where impeachment plots are hatched and the pork barrel is cut up and doled out.

The Senate is no less colorful and dazzling. Movie actors Jinggoy Estrada, Bong Revilla and Lito Lapid, whose performances in the Upper House are definitely below Famas standards, are making a comeback. Other contenders include coup leaders Danilo Lim and Ariel Querubin, who are running on rival tickets; and militant Leftists Satur Ocampo and Liza Maza, and the late dictator’s son, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., strange bedfellows in the Nacionalista Party. Two outgoing senators have tapped their children to continue their legacy – Ruffy, congressman-son of Rodolfo Biazon, and Gwendolyn, daughter of Aquilino Pimentel Jr.

It is in the local contests in the provinces where the political cauldron will reach blistering levels. It is here where electoral battles between families and clans are fiercest and often defined by the three G’s: guns, gold and goons. Most of the protagonists are familiar names that have become associated with political dynasties. In some cases it’s a free-for-all among clan members when there are not enough posts for everyone. Many of the contests are a replay of past encounters between the scions and dummies of the moneyed elite.

Biggest shocker

The biggest shocker of the electoral season, of course, is the declaration of President Arroyo that she is running for the congressional seat of the second district of Pampanga, which is currently held by her older son, Jose Miguel “Mikey” Arroyo. (Her youngest son, Diosdado Ignacio “Dato”, is gunning a second term as congressman of the first district of Camarines Sur. How he ended up in Bicol is another story.)  Needless to say, it’s a walk in the park for Mrs. Arroyo, who said she would remain in her post until her term expires on June 30, 2010. She is up against three unknown opponents.

Mikey, who joked that he had been “eased” out of a reelection bid, has been named as the first nominee of the party-list Ang Galing Party (AGP). He said at least five party-list groups have offered him a slot as their nominee. Mikey’s party-list bid drew this reaction from Liberal Party senatorial candidate and Akbayan Rep. Risa Hontiveros: “They’re elevating this shameless craving for political power to a different, legendary level. We might as well give it a name, and call it ‘Arroyotitis’.”

Hontiveros added: “Like mother, like son. Obviously, Arroyotitis is hereditary. Masyado naman silang naghahabol ng pwesto. Gusto nila kunin ang pagka-Prime Minister, President, Speaker, at limang seats sa Kongreso. Kulang na lang baguhin nila ang ating batas para makatakbo si Mikey ng SK (Sangguniang Kabatan).”

There are two other relatives in the House: the President’s brother-in-law, Negros Occidental Rep. Ignacio “Iggy” Arroyo, and sister-in-law Ang Kasangga party-list Rep. Lourdes Arroyo.

The fight for the Pampanga gubernatorial post will be a rematch between the Liberal Party (LP) bet, reformist priest-turned politician Gov. Ed Panlilio, and Lakas-Kampi candidate Lilia Pineda, wife of alleged jueteng lord Bong Pineda and a staunch ally of Mrs. Arroyo. In February, the Comelec’s Second Division nullified Panlilio’s 2007 victory and proclaimed Pineda as the rightful winner.

Solid North face-offs

Another sitting governor and LP candidate, Isabela Gov. Grace Padaca, was earlier ousted by the poll body’s Second Division earlier in December. The polio-stricken former radio broadcaster who ended the Dy’s 30-year reign in the province in 2004 when she trounced then governor Faustino Dy Jr., is facing in May another member of the Dy clan, Isabela Rep. Faustino Dy III. In 2007, Padaca, a Ramon Magsaysay awardee for government service in 2008, defeated another Dy clan member, former governor Benjamin Dy. Faustino Jr, Faustino III and Benjamin are brothers.

Over in Ilocos Norte, the Marcoses are once again flexing their political muscle. The former First Lady is seeking to take over the congressional post of the second district, now occupied by her son Bongbong, who is running for senator. Eldest daughter Imee Marcos-Manotoc is eyeing the top provincial post against her first cousin, incumbent Gov. Michael Keon. Two old hands – former governor Rodolfo Fariñas and former congressman Roquito Ablan Jr. — are slugging it out for the congressional post in the first district.

In the 2007 fight for Pangasinan’s fourth district congressional seat, then-Speaker Jose de Venecia trounced Dagupan City Mayor Benjamin Lim. This time, it will be the turn of their wives to face each other. Gina de Venecia and Celia Lim will re-ignite their husband’s rivalry that began in 2001.

Metro match-ups

In the Manila mayoralty race, incumbent Mayor Alfredo Lim is facing his old nemesis, former mayor Lito Atienza, who is currently secretary of natural resources. The two used to be allies; they won as a tandem in 1992 and 1995 (Lim was mayor and Atienza was vice mayor). Atienza took over when Lim unsuccessfully ran for the presidency in 1998. Later, the two parted ways and they tangled for the mayoral post in 2001, which Atienza won. In 2007, Lim resigned his Senate post and went on to regain his old post against Atienza’s son, Ali.

In Makati, long-time Mayor and vice presidential candidate Jojo Binay had a falling out with erstwhile allies Vice Mayor Ernesto Mercado, ex-Rep. Butz Aquino and Rep. Teddy Boy Locsin. Mercado and Aquino are both running for mayor against Binay’s son, Junjun, a councilor. Locsin has sided with Mercado and fielded his wife Louie to take over his congressional seat.

In San Juan, the bailiwick of former President Joseph Estrada, the ousted president’s mistress, Guia Gomez, seeks to take over the mayoral post from incumbent Mayor JV Ejercito, her son by Estrada. JV, in turn, is running for the lone congressional seat to be vacated by erstwhile Estrada ally Ronaldo Zamora.

In Parañaque, actor and former mayor Joey Marquez is making a comeback at city hall. He is facing incumbent Mayor Jun Bernabe and outgoing congressman Eduardo Zialcita. His estranged wife, Alma Moreno, is returning as councilor but under a rival group.

Free-for-all in Cebu

In Cebu, there are two simultaneous wars going on – one, between the Garcia and Osmeña clans and the other one is between Osmeña family members. Over the last several years, the Garcias have eclipsed the dominance of the Osmeñas in Cebu. Incumbent Gov. Gwendolyn Garcia, the province’s first woman governor, was first elected in 2004 and got reelected in 2007. She is favored to win a third term in May 2010 against allies of the Osmeñas. The Garcia patriarch, Pablo, is seeking reelection as congressman of the second district. His son Pablo John is also running for another term as congressman of the third district. Former Cebu City Mayor Alvin Garcia, a cousin of the Cebu governor, is seeking to reclaim his old seat but under a rival party.

Outgoing Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña is fielding Vice Mayor Michael Rama to succeed him. The mayor’s wife, Margot, was endorsed by various groups to replace her husband but decided to run for a council seat instead. But Tomas’ younger sister, Georgia, could not be stopped in her mayoral bid.

The Osmeña internecine feud has spilled over to the national arena. Cousins Sergio III (Serge), a former senator, and Emilio Jr. (Lito), a former governor, are both running for senator. This could prove disastrous to both because a vote for “Osmeña” will be will not be counted as there are two candidates with the same surname.

The protagonists are third generation members of the Osmeña clan, whose patriarch was the former president, Sergio Osmeña. Two of Sergio’s sons are Emilio and Sergio Jr. (Serging), who ran unsuccessfully for president in 1969 against Ferdinand Marcos. John and Lito are sons of Emilio; Serge, Tomas and Georgia are children of Serging.

Duel in Davao

A bitter electoral battle is also shaping up down in Davao City between City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte and House of Representatives Speaker Prospero Nograles Jr. Duterte, dubbed “The Punisher” by Time magazine for his tough stance against crime, is on his third and last term. His daughter, Sara – the incumbent vice mayor – is running to replace her father; the elder Duterte will run for vice mayor.

Nograles, who is also on his last term as congressman of Davao City, is challenging the younger Durete for the mayoral seat. His running mate is former mayor Benjamin de Guzman, who used to be a protégé of Duterte. Nograles’ son Karlo, meanwhile is eyeing to take over his father’s congressional seat.

Over in Saranggani province, boxing idol Manny Pacquiao isn’t content being just the world’s best pound-for-pound boxer, he wants also to be known as “The Gentleman from Saranggani.” He is running for the province’s lone congressional seat against incumbent Rep. Roy Chiongbian, who belongs to a wealthy clan in the province. Whether Pacman’s latest string of victories will be enough to propel him to Congress this time is another story. In his first congressional bid in 2007 in General Santos City, he lost to the incumbent, Darlene Antonino-Custodio.

Vilma, Chavit, Jocjoc

Other prominent movie celebrities in the fray include reelectionist Governor Vilma Santos in Batangas; Cesar Montano, who is running for governor in Bohol; and Christopher de Leon, who is seeking a board member seat in Batangas. Actor Richard Gomez has appealed his disqualification by the Comelec from his candidacy for the congressional seat of Ormoc City on account of his being a resident of Greenhills, San Juan, Metro Manila. Ormoc City is hometown of his wife Lucy.

Broadcaster Jay Sonza and former Jukebox Queen Imelda Papin are running for vice president and senator, respectively, under the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, the party founded by Ferdinand Marcos. The pair refers to themselves as Mel and Jay, which was the title of the defunct TV show that featured Jay and GMA-7 news anchor Mel Tiangco.

Former Ilocos Sur Governor Luis “Chavit” Singson is out to reclaim his old post which he last held from 1992 to 2001. His son, Ronald, is running for reelection as congressman of the first district of the province.

With their boss’ imminent departure from Malacanang, several Cabinet members are seeking congressional posts: Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita in Batangas, Justice Secretary Agnes Devenadera in Quezon, Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap in Bohol and Budget Secretary Rolando Andaya Jr. in Camarines Sur.

Other Palace officials in the electoral fray are Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, for president, MMDA chair Bayani Fernando for vice president, Secretary of Public Works Hermogenes Ebdane for Zambales governor, Tesda director general Augusto Syjuco for congressman in Iloilo, and PNR chair Michael Defensor for mayor of Quezon City.

Rounding off the cast of characters are personalities who are known more for their notoriety than for integrity or nobility. There is former agriculture undersecretary Jocelyn “Jocjoc” Bolante, the alleged architect of the P728-million fertilizer scam, who is running for governor of Capiz. It will be recalled that the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee had conducted an inquiry into the anomaly and recommended the filing of plunder charges against Bolante, a close friend of First Gentleman Mike Arroyo.

And in Maguindanao, 10 members of the Ampatuan clan implicated in the Maguindanao massacre, are candidates for various local positions. According to Comelec records, 68 Ampatuans are running in this year’s election – 50 of them carry the surname and 18 others use Ampatuan as middle name. Of the 50, at least 23 candidates are directly related to Andal Ampatuan, Sr., the former governor of Maguindanao who is alleged to the brains behind the Maguindanao massacre.

The shifting moods of the electorate are mirrored in the results of the surveys on the presidential and vice presidential preferences in the May 10 elections by the country’s leading pollsters, Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia, from late last year up to end of  February. With two months to go before D-Day, Noynoy Aquino and Manny Villar are locked in a neck-and-neck battle. It remains to be seen which weapon will prove mightier in the end – Cory’s magic or Manny’s millions. (See related story – Too Close to Call.)

PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES FOR 2010 ELECTIONS

SOCIAL WEATHER STATIONS

PULSE ASIA

VICE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES

SOCIAL WEATHER STATIONS

PULSE ASIA

It’s a very tight two-man contest for the presidency, according to the latest survey.

Going into the last two months the campaign, Liberal Party standard bearer Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III maintained a two-digit lead over closest rival, Sen.  Manuel Villar Jr. of the Nacionalista Party.

The latest survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) from Feb. 24 to 28 showed Aquino’s lead down to only 2 percentage points, with Aquino at 36% and Villar at 34%. (See related story – Tracking the Numbers.)

“We’re saying it’s a 2-point lead [in the latest survey],” said SWS president Mahar Mangahas. “We’re not calling it a tie. To say that it is a tie is to lean toward one side. So we’re not calling it a tie unless it is the exact same point.”

He said the correct way of interpreting the results of the latest survey is that, given the margin of error of 2%,  it’s either a statistical tie or that Aquino has a 4-percentage-point lead.

But what is clear, he added, is that there has been a consistent decline in support for Aquino based on the four presidential surveys conducted by SWS from December 5-10, 2009 to February 24-28 2010.

Aquino’s lead over Villar was 19 points in December 5-10, 2009, 11 points in December 27-28, 2009, 7 points in January 21-24, 2010, and 2 points in February 24-28.

Other contenders

Trailing the front-runners were former President Joseph Estrada (15 percent, up 2 points), former Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro (6 percent, also up 2 points), Bro. Eddie Villanueva (3 percent, up 1 point), Sen. Richard Gordon (2 percent, no change), Nicanor Perlas (0.2 percent), Olongapo Councilor JC de los Reyes (0.1 percent) and Sen. Jamby Madrigal (0.1 percent).

SWS said the 6-point decline in Aquino’s rating since January was due to drops in all four areas across the country: 7 points in the balance of Luzon, 6 in Mindanao, 5 in the Visayas, and 3 in Metro Manila.

Villar lost 6 percentage points in Metro Manila, 2 in the balance of Luzon, and one in Mindanao, but picked up 5 in the Visayas to trim his overall slide to just 1 point.

By socioeconomic class, Aquino was ahead in Class D (38 percent compared with Villar’s 34 percent), while Villar was ahead in Classes ABC (33 percent compared with Aquino’s 30 percent) and Class E (34 percent versus Aquino’s 32 percent).

Pulse Asia survey

Meanwhile, the most recent survey of another polling firm, Pulse Asia, showed Aquino leading Villar by 7 percentage points. In the Pulse Asia’s survey, conducted on Feb. 21-25, Villar rated 29 percent, down by six percentage points from the Jan. 10 survey. In contrast, Aquino held on to 36 percent, down by one percentage point from the previous survey.

Explaining the different results of the Pulse Asia and SWS surveys, political analyst Ramon Casiple said it could be an indication of voters’ “wild swings.”

“There are wild swings among the voters, and there are only a few undecided. They have somebody in mind, but their choice is affected by issues that come out in the media. That’s why the trending is not fixed,” said Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms.

He said the voters had a “deep interest” in the presidential election and were closely monitoring the news coming out in the media about the candidates.

“You may have a lead, but it does not necessarily mean that this will be maintained. But it appears that it’s a one-on-one between the two,” Casiple said of Aquino and Villar.

Vice presidential race

In the latest SWS survey for the vice presidential race, Aquino’s running mate Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II maintained his wide lead over nearest rival Sen. Loren Legarda, running mate of Villar.

Roxas garnered 45 percent, a drop of 4 percentage points from the January survey. Legarda remained at 28 percent.

Other vice presidential candidates did not gain substantially. Trailing were Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay (17 percent), former Metro Manila Development Authority chair Bayani Fernando (3 percent), former Optical Media Board chair Edu Manzano (2 percent), broadcaster Jay Sonza (1 percent), former Securities and Exchange Commission chief Perfecto Yasay (0.4 percent), and Dominador Chipeco (0.4 percent).

Aquino upbeat

Despite his slide, Aquino remained upbeat. “I’m still No. 1, but it doesn’t mean we’re satisfied with that. The tightening race means that we’d just have to redouble our efforts,” he said.

Aquino said that getting ahead of his rivals despite what he called a “tsunami” of political ad and media spending by Villar was in itself an achievement. (See related story – Money and the Presidency.)

“I think our message is getting to its target audience despite our lack of resources. We just make it up with our campaigns and grassroots volunteers,” said the LP standard-bearer.

LP campaign strategist Florencio “Butch” Abad Jr. said Villar had failed to overtake Aquino in the surveys despite exceeding the limit on ad spending.

Villar happy

For his part, Villar said: “We are statistically tied,” referring to the SWS survey.

“As for me, I am comfortable with my lead and, of course, we still look to Noynoy (as a close rival) although we respect all the candidates. However, (Estrada’s) distance (or lead) from us is still far,” Villar said.

He said he was happy that “surveys have confirmed that we are responding to the hopes of the people across the country.”

He attributed the rise in his ratings to the frenetic pace of his campaign sorties across the country since Feb. 9.

“Of course, the others who are (trailing in surveys), we expect them to get more points now because of their wider exposure,” Villar said.

Estrada elated

Estrada expressed elation over his rising rating. He said that if his numbers continued to go up at the rate they were going, he would have a high-enough rating to win come May.

“It’d be over for them,” Estrada said.” In 1998, I started in third place. It’s hard to be No. 1. It’s more difficult (to start) from the top (and then) going down, isn’t it?”

The camp of Teodoro welcomed his slight improvement in rating. “We’re gaining ground right in time for the presidential elections in May,” said Mike Toledo, spokesperson for Teodoro.

Gordon wondered how a small sample of respondents could accurately represent more than 50 million voters across the country. He warned against the mind-conditioning effects of the surveys.

Madrigal said she did not believe in surveys. “Unless and until these survey groups clarify who are funding them and what their methodology is, there will always be a cloud of doubt on their accuracy,” she said.